Elements of Deterrence

Description

Global politics in the twenty-first century is complicated by dense economic interdependence, rapid technological innovation, and fierce security competition. How should governments formulate grand strategy in this complex environment? Many strategists look to deterrence as the answer, but how much can we expect of deterrence? Classical deterrence theory developed in response to the nuclear threats of the Cold War, but strategists since have applied it to a variety of threats in the land, sea, air, space, and cyber domains.

If war is the continuation of politics by other means, then the diversity of technologies in modern war suggests a diversity of political effects. Some military forces or postures are most useful for "winning" various kinds of wars. Others are effective for "warning" adversaries of consequences or demonstrating resolve. Still others may accomplish these goals at lower political cost, or with greater strategic stability. Deterrence is not a simple strategy, therefore, but a complex relationship between many ends and many means.

This book presents findings from a decade-long research program on "cross-domain deterrence." Through a series of theoretical and empirical studies, we explore fundamental trade-offs that have always been implicit in practice but have yet to be synthesized into a general theory of deterrence. Gartzke and Lindsay integrate newly revised and updated versions of published work alongside new work into a holistic framework for understanding how deterrence works—or fails to work—in multiple domains. Their findings show that in deterrence, all good things do not go together.

About the authors:

Erik Gartzke, Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of California San Diego, and Jon R. Lindsay, Professor in the Department of Political Science, University of California San Diego

Erik Gartzke is Professor of Political Science and the Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies (cPASS) at the University of California, San Diego. Jon R. Lindsay is Associate Professor at the School of Cybersecurity and Privacy and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

Reviews

"This is a very important book. It deserves serious consideration by strategic thinkers, military planners, international relations theorists, and scholars in the field of security studies. If you wonder what, if anything, new can be said about deterrence theory, think again. Remarkably, Gartzke and Lindsey have broken new ground in a field that has already been heavily plowed. Elements of Deterrence challenges much of the received wisdom on the subject, both theoretically and empirically. The end result is a much deeper and more nuanced understanding of how complex deterrence relationships operate in the emerging political and technological environment that will govern interstate relations for the foreseeable future." - Frank Zagare, University at Buffalo

"In a brilliant analysis of a world where grand strategy matters again, Gartzke and Lindsay show how deterrence strategy bundles means and ends and demonstrate how different means are specialized to achieve different ends. Integrated deterrence is impossible, they find, because all good things do not go together. Deterrence, they conclude, is the process of managing tensions among conflicting goals and complex instruments. Consequently, there is no 'right' way to combine means without a clear sense of preferred political ends. Their analysis is a must read for anyone interested in the big strategic challenges of the twenty-first century and the hard choices, not only among means but also among objectives, that lie ahead." - Janice Gross Stein, University of Toronto

"As policymakers and strategists grapple with the multifaceted challenges of an increasingly complex environment, Elements of Deterrence offers novel and invaluable insights. The book's detailed theoretical and empirical studies shed light on the delicate balance between "winning" conflicts, warning adversaries of costly repercussions, and demonstrating resolve in light of grand challenges. Critically, the authors uncover that deterrence, as a strategy, necessitates making tough choices as not all favorable outcomes can coexist. In a time when global security requires innovative and adaptive approaches, this book serves as an indispensable resource for understanding the evolving nature of deterrence and its vital role in shaping the future of international relations." - Rupal N. Mehta, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

"Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay are among the world's leading scholars on emerging technology and international security, and, in this brilliant new book, they force us to rethink the fundamentals of deterrence theory for the 21st century. This is the authoritative scholarly work on 'integrated deterrence' and should be required reading for government officials and scholars alike." - Matthew Kroenig, Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University

Table of contents

Biographies
Acknowledgements
List of Figures and Tables
Ch. 1 Introduction: Revisiting Deterrence Theory
I The Means and Ends of Deterrence
Ch. 2 What is Deterrence?
Ch. 3 Deterrence is Not (Just) One Thing
Ch. 4 Politics by (Many) Other Means
II Theoretical Problems in the Cyber Domain
Ch. 5 Cyberspace is Unsuitable for the Strategy of War
Ch. 6 Cyberspace is Ideal for the Strategy of Deception
Ch. 7 Cyber Deception Versus Nuclear Deterrence
III Empirical Evidence in Multiple Domains
Ch. 8 Land: Presence and Credibility
with Koji Kagotani
Ch. 9 Sea: Maneuver and Uncertainty
Ch. 10 Air: Automation and Cost
with James Walsh
Ch. 11 Space: Intelligence and Stability
with Bryan Early
IV Strategic Implications of Complexity
Ch. 12 Trade: Asymmetry and Multipolarity
with Oliver Westerwinter
Ch. 13 Cyber: Complements and Substitutes
with Nadiya Kostyuk
Ch. 14 Gray Zone: Ambiguity and Escalation
with J. Andres Gannon and Peter Schram
Ch. 15 Conclusion: Summary and Implications
Bibliography